Demographic situation

The total area of Ukraine is 603,628 km². However, in early 2014, Russia initiated military operations against Ukraine, leading to the occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, as well as some parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. By 2021, almost 43,300 km², or 7% of Ukraine's territory, was under temporary Russian occupation. This situation escalated further when, on 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, the proportion of Ukrainian territory under temporary occupation increased to 11% (about 64,600 km²). By the end of 2023, almost 18% (109,000 km²) of Ukraine's territory was under the control of occupying forces. Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have successfully liberated about 39,000 km². In the first half of 2024, the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and five Ukrainian regions (Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Kharkiv) remain under partial occupation.

The data provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine indicate that the country's population was 51.6 million in 1991, the year of Ukraine's independence. Since then, this number has been declining. Demographers attribute this demographic decline to two main factors: a higher death rate than birth rate and an ageing population. This is demonstrated by a persistent reduction in the proportion of individuals below the age of 17 within the Ukrainian resident population. For example, the pre-war proportion of women of reproductive age was 18.1% in 2019 and 17.9% in 2021. This trend suggests that there will be fewer women of reproductive age in the future, leading to a decrease in the number of children born. According to the National Institute for Strategic Studies, this could be a factor in the worsening of demographic decline.

* Excluding the temporarily occupied territories. Source:  State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

The high mortality rate among men of working age is another reason for the unsatisfactory demographic situation in Ukraine. Life expectancy for men (65.1 years) is almost 10 years lower than for women (74.4 years). As of 1 January 2022, the population of Ukraine decreased to 41.16 million people. Such a significant reduction was also confirmed by independent UN data, calculated for the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine. Based on these calculations, the population of Ukraine has already decreased to 36.74 million people in 2023, during the period of martial law.

The war waged by Russia against Ukraine in 2022 has had a considerable impact on the demographic situation in Ukraine. Other causes of the demographic decline include military factors, a large number of deaths and injuries among both military and civilians, and a significant wave of migration of Ukrainians abroad.

As of January 2024, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission has confirmed the deaths of 10,233 civilians and injuries to 19,289 others in Ukraine. However, the real figures are likely to be much higher.

As reported by the Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office (Офіс Генерального прокурора України), the number of children killed as a result of the war reached 554 by the end of June 2024, with a further 1,419 injured. In fact, the most recent data may be even higher. Furthermore, the Presidential Commissioner for Children and Child Rehabilitation has stated that 200,000-300,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly and illegally transported from Ukraine to the Russian Federation, Belarus and temporarily occupied territories.

Migration

The UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, reported that more than 6.44 million Ukrainian refugees had fled the country at the beginning of 2024, with 5.97 million of them living in European countries. The vast majority of migrants (90%) are women and children. Most are of working age, with 42% aged 30-39 and 29% aged 40-49. A survey conducted by the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Studies named after Oleksandr Razumkov revealed that 83% of these refugees have completed or are currently completing higher education.

The full-scale invasion of Russia has led to a significant increase in internal migration. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated that the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) reached about 7.1 million by mid-2022. In 2022, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine reported the issuance of over 2.7 million certificates to IDPs. Official sources indicate that 230,000 children were forcibly deported to Russia.

Refugees are reluctant to return home due to the protracted nature of the war, the widespread economic devastation and the unclear prospects for the country's post-war socio-economic recovery. At the same time, many families have been separated, with women and children living abroad and men remaining in Ukraine. This further threatens the country's demographic potential in the medium and long term.

As projected by the EU Council, the current war and its duration could lead to a 24-33% decline in Ukraine's population compared to pre-war levels. Changes in the gender and age structure of the Ukrainian population, due to a decrease in the proportion of young people under the age of 20, are likely to exacerbate Ukraine's population reproduction problems over time.

Languages

According to the Constitution of Ukraine (Конституція України), Ukrainian is the state language. It is the responsibility of the state to ensure comprehensive development and use of the Ukrainian language in all spheres of public life throughout Ukraine, as outlined in the Law on Supporting the Functioning of the Ukrainian Language as the State Language (Закон України ‘Про забезпечення функціонування української мови як державної’).

The population of Ukraine is multinational. Therefore, in addition to Ukrainian, regions with a high concentration of national minorities also use Romanian, Hungarian, Bulgarian, Polish, Russian, Crimean Tatar, and other languages.

The most popular foreign languages are English, German and French. On 4 June 2024, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Law on the Use of English in Ukraine (Закон України ‘Про застосування англійської мови в Україні’), officially recognising English as a language of international communication.

Ukraine also guarantees the free development, use and protection of other languages of national minorities within its territory. This includes providing education in the native language of children living in areas with significant national minority populations. To illustrate, during the 2023/2024 school year, Hungarian language tuition was provided in 67 general secondary schools, amounting to a total of 918 classes. Romanian was taught in 57 schools (974 classes), Polish in 54 classes, and Russian in 20 classes (as evidenced by the SSI ‘Institute of Educational Analytics’ statistical data).

Pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine have always been active in challenging the status of the Ukrainian language as the sole state language. They argued the non-binding nature of the Ukrainian language legislation. The language issue has been used to foment ethnic hatred.

Russia's full-scale military aggression against Ukraine in 2022 has exposed the country's underlying motives. The war is accompanied by the genocide of Ukrainians. In the temporarily occupied territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions, the Ukrainian-language information, educational, and cultural space has been destroyed. The forced Russification of the Ukrainian population is currently underway, accompanied by systematic repression of those who defend the Ukrainian language and self-identity.

These facts constitute a violation of international law. The policy of the occupying authorities is to create a cultural and mental gap between the population of Ukraine and the residents of the temporarily occupied territories. This is done in order to complicate their inclusion or reintegration into the Ukrainian socio-cultural space.

However, this pressure from the Russian occupying forces has the opposite effect. According to sociological surveys, the proportion of Ukrainian citizens who speak Ukrainian in their daily lives in the areas under Ukrainian control has increased from 64% in 2021 to 71% in 2022.

Religion

Many religions are practised in Ukraine, including Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, Hinduism and various emerging religious movements. However, Christianity predominates, accounting for about 97% of all confessional structures. Orthodoxy is the dominant Christian denomination in Ukraine, along with Protestantism and Catholicism. The largest Catholic denomination is the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, with about 6 million believers.

Since Ukraine gained independence, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate (UOC-KP), the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church (UAOC) and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) have been the leading Orthodox jurisdictions. They shaped the main processes of church life and lobbied for certain legislative changes in the area of freedom of conscience and religion. They also tried to present themselves as the main representatives of Ukrainian identity and the heirs of the ancient Kyivan Church. Despite numerous attempts by Ukrainian society to reconcile and unite these religious communities, there has been no success.

In 2018, however, the idea of a Local Church took on a new significance. It was embraced by the majority of the Ukrainian Orthodox believers, the clergy, the President of Ukraine, the Parliament and government of Ukraine, local authorities and the public.

With the full support of His All Holiness Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, Ukrainians have realised their centuries-old dream of establishing a unified Local Church. On 15 December 2018, the Unification (Constituent) Council of bishops, priests and laity of the UOC-KP, UAOC and part of the UOC-MP convened at St. Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv. This meeting led to the establishment of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU). In January 2019, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I presented the newly elected Primate of the OCU, Metropolitan Epiphanius, and the then President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, with the Patriarchal and Synodal Tomos, granting autocephaly (self-government) to the Orthodox Church in Ukraine (see Analytical report ‘Church-state relations and socio-religious relations in the context of Russia's war against Ukraine’ in Ukrainian).

Since 2019, two principal Christian Orthodox jurisdictions have existed in Ukraine: the OCU and the UOC-MP. The institutional network of these two Orthodox jurisdictions represents over 50% of the total religious network in Ukraine. The OCU in particular has a larger number of believers. Towards the end of December 2022, the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine conducted a survey among Ukrainian citizens on their affiliation to the OCU or the UOC-MP. At that time, 6.6% of respondents indicated affiliation with the UOC-MP, whereas in November 2021, this figure was 21.9%. The proportion of respondents identifying as members of the OCU increased from 36.1% to 45% over the course of 2022.

This is because the OCU and the UOC-MP are on opposite sides of the front line created by Russia's full-scale military attack on Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In its resolution, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe recognised the Russian Orthodox Church as an instrument of influence and propaganda for official Moscow.

The OCU immediately condemned the Russian aggression categorically and unequivocally and called for the immediate restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity. The OCU is supporting Ukraine in the international arena and organising campaigns to provide humanitarian aid to affected citizens, IDPs and the armed forces.

In contrast, the UOC-MP denies Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine and covers up the chauvinist policies of the Russian state and church leadership. It ignores the suffering of Ukrainian civilians, the destruction of Ukrainian settlements and widespread atrocities such as torture, public executions, rape (including of minors), and the mass abduction of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children. The occupiers have also destroyed hundreds of religious buildings, including UOC-MP churches. Consequently, as evidenced by reports from the State Service for Ethnic Policy and Freedom of Conscience of Ukraine (Державна служба України з етнополітики та свободи совісті), the UOC-MP's network of religious organisations is gradually diminishing.

The war waged by the Russian Federation against Ukraine has brought to light significant challenges facing the church. These issues are being addressed through transformative changes that have been catalysed by ongoing social processes influenced by the war.